TITLE: My Ignorant Oscars (Direction) AUTHOR: Joe Johnson DATE: 7:11:00 AM ----- BODY:
Once upon a time, my wife and I did a weekly podcast following current releases. That seems like an impossible event considering how seldom we get to movies these days. So it is with great shame that we - as co-hosts of a show about directors - can offer no real insight into this year's "Best Achievement in Directing" Academy Award category. Having only seen one of the nominated works, we have to watch from afar.

We hope to get the movies in before the Oscars, if for no other reason than to comment on our picks and our bets. But perhaps there's something valuable about picking and guessing from a place of near complete ignorance. Ignorance and speculation will be the sum total of this entry.

Of the five nominees, Stephen Frears (The Queen) seems the least likely to win. Frears has done some reputable work in the past (The Grifters, Dangerous Liaisons), but is, well, too British. And his film is too explicitly British. Nothing confirms the snobbery of the Academy like seeming too British. Ignorant odds of winning: 1 in 100.

Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima) is a double-winner. The Academy likes him: his austere filmmaking, complete with a nihilist and important-feeling string of films going back to Unforgiven (1992). That's part of Eastwood's advantage. But it also doesn't hurt that he threw out a companion work, Flags of Our Fathers, which also drew some attention. But is he ready for a third statue? The only way Academy members give him a third and snub Scorsese is out of spite and no one hates Scorsese. Ignorant odds of winning: 1 in 25.

Paul Greengrass (United 93) is an intelligent filmmaker. He's especially noteworthy for how he approached a film about one of the most exploitable and sensitive events in American history: the events of September 11, 2001. And perhaps it’s because of the significance of the events behind the film that Greengrass has a shot. But at the end of the day, United 93 is a film that capitalizes on external reinforcement and probably won't endure as a great film. It's not a controversial film and deserves credit for taking such a sensitive subject and perfectly choosing how to deal with it. Then again, maybe a more dangerous filmmaker would have made a more provocative film (it's a subject that even seems to have tamed/subdued Oliver Stone). In some ways, the nomination is the award. Ignorant odds of winning: 1 in 50.

Alejandro Iñárritu (Babel) is the kind of filmmaker that has garnered whispers and notice from a number of influential critics and moviegoers. Since Meirelles's City of God (2002) and Alfonso Cuarón's Y Tu Mamá También (2001), the film world has started taking notice of Central and South American film work. It's serious stuff. The Mexican Iñárritu has an open path to taking the award this year, especially given the foundation he's set in 21 Grams and Amores Perros - both deeply respected films. Babel already won the Golden Globe for Best Picture. Ignorant odds of winning: 1 in 5.

The final nominee needs no introduction. He's the Bob Dylan of his era - ignored for years by the establishment, especially in his prime - and due for recognition now that he's part of the royalty of that establishment. I'm not saying the Academy gives undeserving awards to filmmakers and actors it has ignored in the past - just that it gives an advantage. This is the biggest reason Martin Scorsese (The Departed) will win. It's not that his film isn't strong. It's the one picture on this list that I've actually seen, and it's definitely among the better works of the year. The performances are outstanding, the execution is solid and the buzz is exciting. Of course, I thought the ending was abrupt, arbitrary and untrue and haven't seen as conspicuous and gawsh-inducing a rat shot since Species (1995). But otherwise, it was both an enjoyable and expertly crafted film, deserving of the nomination. Likewise, Scorsese - despite the faults of this film - handled it with an energy that deserves attention. Scorsese has already won the Golden Globe for direction and will finally get his Oscar. Semi-ignorant odds of winning: 1 in 2.

Labels:

--------